TraderMinute: Playing the Bounce on COP

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There is no denying that oil has been taken to the wood shed this year and absolutely beaten down. None of the major oil stocks have escaped the wrath that has settled in on the sector. Everything from Chevron (CVX), Schlumberger (SLB), Halliburton (HAL), and Exxon (XOM).

You can see the damage that has been done if you take a look at the Energy SPDR (XLE), which started 2015 on the highs around $82 and now has sunk to below $60, a little over 25% value this year.


While agonizing to watch the price of these company’s slide, the silver lining is that with bottoms come opportunities.

Take ConocoPhillips (COP) as an example.  A couple of things have developed that make it an attractive opportunity to jump on as the year comes to a close.  A few developments have happened recently that make this a potentially great opportunity.

First, the option activity on the call side has increased. There was a rather large purchase today in the tens of thousands for the January 50 Calls and the volumes in those options spiked indicating it is new money.  The long calls allow the purchaser to buy the stock at $50.  Essentially the purchaser is banking on a rally that might have COP well above $50 by mid-January.

Second, it’s beginning to find a level of support at $45 and is showing that is pretty oversold. In fact, compared to the stretch at the end of 2014 to March 2015, (COP) was oversold at $61 and then bounced up to around $70.

If you decide to trade it, the target is around the November highs of about $55. If the stock and oil takes a nosedive, the support level at $45 is a great stopping point.


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